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ABSTRACT

It is well documented that software product cost estimates are notoriously inaccurate across the software industry. Creating accurate cost estimates for software product development projects early in the product development lifecycle has always been a challenge for the industry. This article describes how a large multi-team software engineering organization (over 450 engineers) estimates project cost accurately and early in the software development lifecycle using Use Case Points, and the process of evaluating metrics to ensure the accuracy of the model.The engineering teams of Agilis Solutions in partnership with FPT Software, provide our customers with accurate estimates for software product projects early in the product lifecycle. The bases for these estimates are initial definitions of Use Cases, given point factors and modified for technical and environmental factors according to the Use Case Point method defined within the Rational Unified Process. After applying the process across hundreds of sizable (60 man-months average) software projects, we have demonstrated metrics that prove an estimating accuracy of less than 9% deviation from actual to estimated cost on 95% of our projects. Our process and this success factor is documented over a period of five years, and across more than 200 projects.

REFERENCES

• 1: Geri Schneider , Jason P. Winters, Applying use cases (2nd ed.): a practical guide, Addison-Wesley Longman Publishing Co., Inc., Boston, MA, 2001
• 2: Alistair Cockburn, Writing Effective Use Cases, Addison-Wesley Longman Publishing Co., Inc., Boston, MA, 2000
• 3: James Rumbaugh , Ivar Jacobson , Grady Booch, The Unified Modeling Language reference manual, Addison-Wesley Longman Ltd., Essex, UK, 1998
• 4: Frederick P. Brooks, Jr., The mythical man-month (anniversary ed.), Addison-Wesley Longman Publishing Co., Inc., Boston, MA, 1995
• 5: Paulk, M., Curtis, W., Chrissis, M., Weber, C., Capability Maturity Model for Software, Version 1.1, Software Engineering Institute, CMU/SEI-93-TR-24, DTIC Number ADA263403, February 1993.

INDEX TERMS

Primary Classification:
  D. Software
  D.2 SOFTWARE ENGINEERING
      D.2.9 Management
          Subjects: Cost estimation

Additional Classification:
  D. Software
  D.2 SOFTWARE ENGINEERING
      D.2.8 Metrics
      D.2.9 Management
          Subjects: Productivity; Time estimation

  G. Mathematics of Computing
  G.3 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
      Subjects: Probabilistic algorithms (including Monte Carlo)

  K. Computing Milieux
  K.6 MANAGEMENT OF COMPUTING AND INFORMATION SYSTEMS
      K.6.1 Project and People Management
      K.6.3 Software Management
          Subjects: Software process

Keywords:
CMM, RUP, capability maturity model, estimating, function point analysis, metric, parametric estimating, rational unified process, use case, use case point