Expert fit: how the ExpertFit distribution-fitting package can make your simulation models more valid

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we discuss the critical role of simulation input modeling in a successful simulation study. Two pitfalls in simulation input modeling are then presented and we explain how any analyst, regardless of their knowledge of statistics, can easily avoid these pitfalls through the use of the ExpertFit distribution-fitting software. We use a set of real-world data to demonstrate how the software automatically specifies and ranks probability distributions, and then tells the analyst whether the "best" candidate distribution is actually a good representation of the data. If no distribution provides a good fit, then ExpertFit can define an empirical distribution. In either case, the selected distribution is put into the proper format for direct input to the analyst's simulation software.

REFERENCES

• 1: Averill M. Law , David M. Kelton, Simulation Modeling and Analysis, McGraw-Hill Higher Education, 1999