APL and demographic modelling

ABSTRACT

Since the seventies the negative demographic growth in the western countries, and especially in Italy has led to a continuous population decrease and an increase in the number of aged people.This trend must be controlled for its inevitable negative effects on socio-economical relations and must be counteracted by new policies. The aim of this paper will be to suggest a way of handling demographic data which could be of easy access to a large number of users at various territorial levels (national, regional, subregional, municipal).In order to achieve this goal a method to implement the mathematical model for short and long term population projection will be provided. The software used will be Excel and APL2.Excel provides the variables and the input parameters of the model written in APL2, the projection results go back to the Excel environment in order to be processed and interpreted.

REFERENCES

• 1: ROGERS, A. (1966) Matrix methods of population analysis. Journal A.I.P. 32,4044
• 2: ISTAT- 1997 Previsioni della popolazione per sesso, eta, regione, base 1.1.1996
• 3: ISTAT-1997 La recondite, nelle regioni italiane. Analisi per coorti
• 4: ISTAT Movimento migratorio della popolazione residente anno 1993-1994-1995
• 5: ISTAT- 1997 Tavole di mortalitfi della popolazione italiana per regione 1989-1993

INDEX TERMS

Primary Classification:
  F. Theory of Computation
  F.3 LOGICS AND MEANINGS OF PROGRAMS

Additional Classification:
  D. Software
  D.2 SOFTWARE ENGINEERING

  F. Theory of Computation
  F.2 ANALYSIS OF ALGORITHMS AND PROBLEM COMPLEXITY

General Terms:
Design, Languages, Theory