A simulation-based framework for quantifying the cold regions weather impacts on construction schedules

ABSTRACT

In cold regions, weather severity has a major impact on construction activities carried out in the open, leading to significant deviations from baseline schedules. Faced with weather uncertainty, setting up the project baseline schedule, against which performance will be measured, can be challenging. Construction planners often depend on their personal judgment and experience to account for the scheduling impact of cold weather. Due to variation in planners' experiences, the regions where their experience was acquired, and the time of year when the planned project is to be executed, the result can be widely differing plans between planners. This paper presents a structured simulation-based approach that attempts to account for the cold weather impacts on project schedule. This approach relies on generating weather sequences similar to the existing historical weather data for the project's geographical region. The impact on productivity and project schedule can then be modeled, leading to consistent schedules.

REFERENCES

• 1: AbouRizk, S. M., and D. W. Halpin. 1990. Probabilistic Simulation Studies for Repetitive Construction Processes. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 116(4):575--594.
• 2: Benjamin, N. B. H., and T. W. Greenwald. 1973. Simulating Effects of Weather on Construction. Journal of the Construction Division 99(CO1):175--190.
• 3: Koehn, E., and G. Brown. 1985. Climatic Effects on Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 111(2):129--137.
• 4: Moselhi, O., D. Gong, and K. El-Rayes. 1997. Estimating Weather Impact on the Duration of Construction Activities. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 24: 359--366.
• 5: Shi, J., and S. AbouRizk. 1998. Continuous and Combined Event-Process Models for Simulating Pipeline Construction. Construction Management and Economics 16: 489--498.
• 6: Thomas, H. R., and I. Yiakoumis. 1987. Factor Model of Construction Productivity. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 113(4): 623--639.
• 7: Wales, R. J., and S. AbouRizk. 1996. An Integrated Simulation Model for Construction. Simulation Practice and Theory 3:401--420.