ARSA: a sentiment-aware model for predicting sales performance using blogs

ABSTRACT

Due to its high popularity, Weblogs (or blogs in short) present a wealth of information that can be very helpful in assessing the general public's sentiments and opinions. In this paper, we study the problem of mining sentiment information from blogs and investigate ways to use such information for predicting product sales performance. Based on an analysis of the complex nature of sentiments, we propose Sentiment PLSA (S-PLSA), in which a blog entry is viewed as a document generated by a number of hidden sentiment factors. Training an S-PLSA model on the blog data enables us to obtain a succinct summary of the sentiment information embedded in the blogs. We then present ARSA, an autoregressive sentiment-aware model, to utilize the sentiment information captured by S-PLSA for predicting product sales performance. Extensive experiments were conducted on a movie data set. We compare ARSA with alternative models that do not take into account the sentiment information, as well as a model with a different feature selection method. Experiments confirm the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed approach.

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INDEX TERMS

Primary Classification:
  H. Information Systems
  H.3 INFORMATION STORAGE AND RETRIEVAL
      H.3.3 Information Search and Retrieval

General Terms:
Algorithms

Keywords:
autoregressive model, blog, sentiment mining