Scenario planning for simulation-based probabilistic risk assessment

ABSTRACT

Simulation is used for the probabilistic risk assessment of complex systems that include hardware, software, and human elements. Since assessing the risk of such systems requires that a large number of scenarios be considered, a Planner component has been added to the simulation environment. This component solicits high level information such as system's structure and functional behavior, and uses it to automatically generate and prioritize scenarios that will be used in risk assessment. Because of the hierarchical configuration of the Planner's knowledge-base, scenarios can easily be modified to assess system risks when parts of the system are modified for risk management. As such, the analyst is able to compare the results of risk assessment -end-state probabilities as well as worse case scenarios- in different settings. The planning process is dynamic and simulation feedback is used to update the list of scenarios and/or their level of priority as needed.