Sports analogy for modelling of combat in the air domain

ABSTRACT

Aggregated models of Air Warfare invariably rely on a user input value for probability of success (kill) or 'exchange ratio' in Air-to-Air Combat. There is limited historical data available to validate these parameters for engagements between non-peer opponents. This paper explores the potential for gaining insights to non-peer Air-to-Air outcomes from the world of sport, and examines the results from Association Football competitions in England.

REFERENCES

• 1: Francis A. Bowers, III , David L. Prochnow, Simulation for emergency response: JTLS-JCATS federation support of emergency response training, Proceedings of the 35th conference on Winter simulation: driving innovation, December 07-10, 2003, New Orleans, Louisiana
• 2: Campbell I. 2005. Jet fighters and air combat tactics. Journal of Defence Science. Volume 10 Number 1.
• 3: Collett M. 2003. The complete record of the FA Cup. SportsBooks Ltd.
• 4: Davis P. K. 1995. Aggregation, disaggregation, and the 3:1 rule in ground combat. RAND.
• 5: Kenney T. A., and E. A. Cohen. 1993. Gulf War air power survey. Washington DC.
• 6: Lambeth B. 2001. NATO's Air War for Kosovo. A strategic and operational assessment. RAND.
• 7: Lanchester F. W. 1916. Aircraft in Warfare: The Dawn of the Fourth Arm. Constable, London.
• 8: Averill M. Law , David M. Kelton, Simulation Modeling and Analysis, McGraw-Hill Higher Education, 1999
• 9: Lawrence M. Leemis, Building credible input models, Proceedings of the 36th conference on Winter simulation, December 05-08, 2004, Washington, D.C.
• 10: Rowland D. 1987. The use of historical data in the assessment of combat degradation. Journal of the Operational Research Society 38: 149--162.
• 11: Rowland D. 1991. The effect of combat degradation on the urban battle. Journal of the Operational Research Society 42: 543--553.
• 12: Rowland D., L. R. Speight, and M. C. Keys. 1996. Manoeuvre warfare: some conditions associated with success at the operational level. Military Operations Research 2(3): 5--16.
• 13: Spick M. 1988. The ACE factor. Air combat and the role of situational awareness. Naval Institute Press.
• 14: George F. Stone, III , Gregory A. McIntyre, JWARS: the joint warfare system (JWARS): a modeling and analysis tool for the defense department, Proceedings of the 33nd conference on Winter simulation, December 09-12, 2001, Arlington, Virginia
• 15: Walter Willinger , David Alderson , John C. Doyle , Lun Li, More "normal" than normal: scaling distributions and complex systems, Proceedings of the 36th conference on Winter simulation, December 05-08, 2004, Washington, D.C.