Forecasting system of an employment pension scheme

ABSTRACT

The paper describes long-term forecasting system of the Finnish employment pension scheme. All employees and self-employed persons are included in the scheme. The forecasting system has three main models: demographic model, pension expenditure model and financing model. All models are programmed in APL2, but they make use of other products in the same environment, e.g., APE (Application Prototype Environment), SQL (Structured Query Language), ICU (Interactive Chart Utility), AFP (Advanced Function Printing). The models are composed of modules, which makes it possible to change the model at all levels. This structure gives also self-documentary programming code. Flexibility and documentary reasons have guided the programming so that compact and efficient code have not been primary objectives. The system consists of 300 functions and total amount of APL-code is about 5000 lines. Only specialists use the forecasting model application. The stored output of the model can be retrieved with the help of an APE-based interface. It gives all end users - also those who have no knowledge of APL - possibility to make tables and ICU-graphics of the data.

INDEX TERMS

Primary Classification:
  D. Software
  D.3 PROGRAMMING LANGUAGES
      D.3.2 Language Classifications

          Nouns: APL

Additional Classification:
  H. Information Systems
  H.5 INFORMATION INTERFACES AND PRESENTATION (I.7)
      H.5.2 User Interfaces (D.2.2, H.1.2, I.3.6)
          Subjects: Interaction styles (e.g., commands, menus, forms, direct manipulation)

  I. Computing Methodologies
  I.6 SIMULATION AND MODELING

  J. Computer Applications
  J.1 ADMINISTRATIVE DATA PROCESSING
      Subjects: Financial (e.g., EFTS)

General Terms:
Human Factors, Languages