Consideration of fluctuation and factors in election with a simulation model

ABSTRACT

In elections, a voter changes his/her opinion and the voting result in a society fluctuates. There are many factors that determine the fluctuation and such factors reflect the characteristics of the society. In the U.S. Presidential Election, each state approves a party, usually either Republican or Democrat, based on the voting result, but the percentage of the approval changes at every election. Our interest is to determine whether the fluctuation of percentage of approval for a party in a state has a relationship with the state's characteristic. In this paper, we propose a simple model to simulate an election with four types of agents, determine how these agents' characteristics influence the fluctuation of the voting result, and compare the result with historical data. Finally, we conclude how such factors relate to the fluctuation of the election results in the society.

REFERENCES

• 1: Edith R. Hornor et al. Almanac of the 50 States: Basis Data Profiles with Comparative Tables. Information Publications
• 2: HistoryCentral.com: http://www.multied.com/index.html
• 3: Geospatial and Statistical Data Center, University of Virginia Library: http://fisher.lib.virginia.edu/collections/stats/elections/maps/
• 4: Inforplease: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781453.html
• 5: Teruhiko Yoneyama and Mukkai S. Krishnamoorthy. 2006. "Simulating Election with Multi-Agent System." Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

INDEX TERMS

Keywords:
election, fluctuation, multi-agent simulation